Doctors are getting smarter, people live healthier, biologic food is more popular then ever. The result of that? people are getting older. Now, that itself isn’t really a problem but, if we don’t have enough people tot take care of them, that might become a problem.
Let’s see some numbers.
- In 2035 The Netherlands will have one person above the age off 65, on two working people. While right now this is one to three (2015, poerstamper);
- According to CBS the amount of people over 65 will increase from 2,7 million at the moment to 4,7 million in 2041 just here in Holland. (2014, RIVM);
- This amount will stay like that until 2060 (2015, CBS);
- In the upcoming years people in the age group of 65-79 will increase strongly (2014, RIVM);
- Off 2025 the amount off people over 80 will also increase, that means double agedness. (2014, RIVM);
- Expectations are that the pressure of agedness will increase strongly: from 27% in 2012 to 51%(!) in 2040. (The pressure of agedness means the relationship between working and not working people, like I mentioned in the intro) (2015,CBS).
- Boys who were born in the year 2000 were expected to come to an age of 76. Now, in 2013 that expectation raised up to 80 years (2015, poerstamper);
Above graphic shows the amount of people above 65 in blue and the amount of people above 80 in green (both in millions)
Well, enough numbers to prove that agedness in The Netherlands is a big thing. Now, what are the consequences?
The biggest consequence is that the pressure on the working population will increase because they’ll have to take care of the elderly. (2016, Planbureau voor Leefomgeving)
Other consequences are the need of care in the neighborhood, you should think about adjusted houses, special facilities, think about recreation, culture and mobility. (2016, Planbureau voor Leefomgeving)
Another consequence will be that employers will have to pay more for there employees, because they’re older. (Wolthuis, 2012)
Some positive consequences are: less nuisance, older people are relatively richer than younger people, what means they’ll spend more, more spending, better economy. (Wolthuis, 2012)
Now let’s talk about trends. Agedness is a mega trend because seeing the above numbers it is definitely a big thing. It is taking at least 30 years, seeing the grafics above probably more. But it is especially a mega trend because it leaves it’s mark on society, seeing the consequences above. Next to this, the mega trend started slowly. It’s all due to the baby boom generation from 1946 (2014, RIVM) to 1970. But at that moment nobody expected it to become such a big issue in the future, nobody noticed the problem at the beginning.
Where in the lifecycle is this trend? If we look at the image above agedness is still in growth. seeing that the amount of people above 65 is still rising. It will probably reach maturity in 2040 and will start declining in 2060. Unfortunately we only have expectations of this and we are not sure of this. But in 2060 we will speak again.
I would like to ask you to think about solutions for the biggest problem agedness brought us: The pressure on the working population will increase because they’ll have to take care of the elderly. How do you think we will be able to concur this problem? And why would this solution work?
Emmie van de Bunt 1661186
RIVM. (2014). Vergrijzing: Wat zijn de belangrijkste verwachtingen voor de toekomst? Consulted on 15-9-2016 off http://www.nationaalkompas.nl/bevolking/vergrijzing/toekomst/
CBS. (2015). Dossier Vergrijzing. Consulted on 15-9-2016 off https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/dossier/dossier-vergrijzing
Pwc. (2015). Demografische veranderingen. Consulted on 15-9-2016 off http://www.pwc.nl/nl/megatrends/demografie.html
Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving. (2016, 9 September). Wat zijn de gevolgen van de vergrijzing? Consulted on 15-9-2016 off http://www.pbl.nl/vraag-en-antwoord/wat-zijn-de-gevolgen-van-de-vergrijzing
Blogger. (2011, April). Wat is een trend, trendpiramides & de trendwatcher ? Consulted on 15-9-2016 off http://vistaproductions-inholland.blogspot.nl/p/groepsdeel-wat-is-een-trend.html